Laterst Aviation Incidents June 29 2016 :

Lufthansa A321 at Munich on Jun 29th 2016, engine problem A Lufthansa Airbus A321-100, registration D-AIRB performing flight LH-2029 from Berlin Tegel to Munich (Germany), was descending through FL090 towards Munich when the crew reported a problem with the right hand engine (V2530). The aircraft continued... Read full story »

Nelson DH8C at Palmerston on Jun 29th 2016, smoke in cabin An Air Nelson de Havilland Dash 8-300 on behalf of Air New Zealand, registration ZK-NED performing flight NZ-8707 from Palmerston North to Christchurch (New Zealand), was climbing out of Palmerston but stopped the climb at about FL120 due to smoke... Read full story »

LOT DH8D at Gdansk and Warsaw on Jun 28th 2016, tyre damage A LOT Polish Airlines de Havilland Dash 8-400, registration SP-EQH performing flight LO-3816 from Gdansk to Warsaw (Poland), was descending towards Warsaw when it was discovered that the left inboard main tyre had partly lost its tread but remained... Read full story »

J-Air E170 at Osaka on Jun 28th 2016, speed disagreement A J-Air Embraer ERJ-170 on behalf of JAL Japan Airlines, registration JA213J performing flight JL-2051 from Osaka Itami to Fukuoka (Japan) with 72 people on board, was in the initial climb out of Itami Airport when the crew detected the speed... Read full story »

J-Air CRJ2 at Osaka on Jun 28th 2016, generator failure A J-Air Canadair CRJ-200 on behalf of JAL Japan Airlines, registration JA207J performing flight JL-2301 from Osaka Itami to Matsuyama (Japan) with 32 people on board, was climbing out of Itami Airport when the crew stopped the climb at FL130 due to... Read full story »

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ISTANBUL TURKEY, ATATURK AIRPORT 3 EXPLOSIONS AND GUNFIRE: 'ISIL' SUICIDE BOMBERS KILL SOME 41 PEOPLE AND WOUND ANOTHER 239

Ataturk International Airport, Istanbul, Turkey

UPDATE:


 Julian Bray writes: Wednesday 18:00 BST


Although no organisation has so far claimed responsibility, and the Turkish Prime Minister (he said it was Daesh ie ISIL, but no external proof has been forthcoming) repeatedly insisting there were 'no gaps in security', but clearly there were gaps.  


The suicide bombers managed to detonate three explosions, in three very different defined locations and before each final act sprayed an 'high population density zone/area' with automatic gunfire. An AK47 can clearly been seen in multiple cameraphone video footage as one of the bombers was shot by armed Turkish police, unfortunately the bomber still had time to detonate his explosives vest. Or possibly, and this comment piece is pure speculation, it could also have been remotely fired by a third party, either by mobile phone signal or a timer device.  The vests would have been secured to the bomber using straps or duct tape. Just in case he/she had second thoughts, and tried to dump the device before it was triggered.   


The first detonation at the taxi drop off zone, and apparently as everyone (naturally) rushed away from the locus of the bomb, the bombers carefully planned to take advantage of the confusion caused, ran though the x-ray line (now possibly deserted by the unarmed operative) and violated a secondary (outer) security control,  detonating a second device, the third device a suicide vest was then triggered near the arrivals zone, and the incident graphically captured on CCTV. The images are too vivid to show, but body parts including a detached limb lies near to a dismembered torso.  


But why attack this popular airport, an important aviation hub? It is a combination of location and long establish conflicts within and around  the country. Turkey has also made available its military airbases to friendly nations to carry on the war in Syria. An important international staging post.


We have to recognise that over 200 people have been killed as a result of incidents,in the last twelve months. Turkey has (or perhaps we have to recognise had) a vibrant tourist industry, the economic backbone of the country.


By attacking this type of soft target, rather than say an inflight aircraft, it has greater and longer lasting worldwide impact in publicity and media terms, and cruelly demonstrates the terrorists increasing level of strategic knowledge.


This was a very well organised attack. This style of targeted incident requires, far less effort, both in terms of resources and the loss of 'soldiers.'  It also directly and immediately impacts on worldwide public opinion, as the visible damage and aftermath is relentlessly played over and over, on social media, seen in printed newspapers, and commented on by international news outlets generally. Sadly it is also considered to be a recruiting device by some terrorist organisations.


Members of the public, do however, have a powerful tactical weapon to use to advantage, as simply if they did not buy holiday packages and airline tickets to, or near, conflict and war zones, the holiday tour operators would quickly stop advance block booking hotels, coaches and securing local resources. Much of which is paid long in advance, and in foreign exchange. 


This cataclysmic drop in revenues would  quickly 'encourage' the authorities to again look at security issues, or their economy collapses.  It is as simple as that. So where to go on holiday? Cruise ships are looking increasingly attractive, and as one Fleet Captain put it "I have 400 chefs and 200 Butchers on board, around the clock. All have large knives. Heaven help anyone who tries it on here."  

Wednesday Morning:


Officials are confirming that at least three explosions detonated by suicide bombers in the international arrivals hall at Ataturk International Airport in Istanbul, Turkey, on Tuesday night, killed at least 41 people and wounding another 239. These numbers may rise.

The blasts occurred at the international departures area at Ataturk International Airport,

Eye witnesses claim they saw 3 suicide bombers, the explosions were triggered before the bombers reached the x-ray line, but not before one of the men opened up with an AK-47.

Passengers ran for cover in surrounding duty free retail outlets as police jumped on one of the men however the (thought to be) ISIL terrorist detonated his bomb in the process, another simply dropped his package - and started to run away  - with police in pursuit - which then exploded.

An airport worker claimed he heard an explosion and then saw police jump on a man who then blew himself up. People then tried to stop another person who appeared to be wearing an explosives jacket.  In accordance with a major incident plan, the airport after the incident was rapidly cleared of passengers and workers, locked down as a precaution against any secondary attack claiming more lives. It re-opened at 7am (Wednesday), with an initial restricted service.


Latest Foreign Office advisory (posted as at 29/06/2016; click this link for updates) relating to Terrorism and Turkey:
https://www.gov.uk/foreign-travel-advice/turkey

Terrorism

The threat from terrorism remains high. Terrorist groups, including Kurdish groups, Daesh (formerly referred to as ISIL) and far left organisations, continue to plan and carry out attacks. Further attacks are likely. 

Terrorist groups, including Daesh and the Kurdistan Freedom Falcons (TAK), have publicly threatened to attack tourist sites in Turkey.

You should take extra care in public places – particularly those visited by foreigners.

Be vigilant, follow the advice of local security authorities, monitor media reports and keep up to date with this travel advice.

On 12 January 2016 there was a suicide bomb attack against tourists in Sultanahmet in Istanbul in which 10 people died. On 19 March 2016 a similar attack against tourists on Istiklal St in Istanbul killed 4 people.

On 17 February 2016 a large bomb attack near a military barracks on Eskisehir Road in Ankara killed 28 people. On 13 March 2016, a similar attack killed over 30 people at Kizilay Square in central Ankara.

On 27 April 2016 there was a suspected suicide bomb attack at Bursa Ulu Mosque. The bomber was killed and 7 people slightly injured.

On 1 May 2016 a bomb attack at the Central Police Station in Gaziantep killed two police officers and injured 23 others.

On 7 June 2016 a bomb attack in the Vezneciler area of Istanbul killed 7 police officers and 4 civilians. 36 people were injured.

On 28 June 2016 Ataturk International Airport in Istanbul was attacked. More than 30 people were killed.  [ Now known to be 41 dead and 239 wounded; numbers are likely to rise ]

Attacks are likely to target the Turkish state, civilians and demonstrations. Nevertheless, it’s increasingly likely that some attacks will also target western interests and tourists from western countries, particularly in the major cities, as was the case in Istanbul on 12 January and 19 March 2016. To date most attacks in Turkey have taken place in the south and east of the country and in Ankara and Istanbul. There is a heightened risk of terrorist attack against the aviation industry in Turkey.

Turkish authorities have successfully disrupted attack planning in the recent past. The Turkish authorities have said that security has been tightened in response to recent attacks. Nevertheless, further attacks are likely, could be indiscriminate and may target or affect places visited by foreigners.


JULIAN BRAY +44(0)1733 345581 Aerospace & Incident Management Expert, Journalist & Broadcaster, Aviation Security & Airline Operations, Travel / Maritime & Cruise Industry, NUJ, EQUITY, LIVE ISDN LINK, Broadcast ISDN COOBE ++44 (0)1733 345020 e&oe Old faithful NOKIA: 07944 217476 www.aviationcomment.com

AVIATION INCIDENTS JUNE 27 2016

Germania A319 at Kassel on Jun 27th 2016, rejected takeoff due to bird strike A Germania Airbus A319-100, registration D-ASTR performing flight ST-2054 from Kassel (Germany) to Heraklion (Greece) with 99 passengers, was accelerating for takeoff from Kassel's runway 27 when an engine (CFM56) ingested a bird prompting the crew... Read full story »

Shenzhen A320 at Hong Kong on Jun 26th 2016, below minimum safe altitude during go around and unexpected 360 A Shenzhen Airlines Airbus A320-200, registration B-6749 performing flight ZH-9041 from Jinjiang to Hong Kong (China), was on final approach to Hong Kong's runway 07L, when approach instructed the crew to reduce to minimum approach speed, the crew... Read full story »

Aeroflot A320 at Tomsk on Jun 24th 2016, bird strike An Aeroflot Airbus A320-200, registration VQ-BHL performing flight SU-1537 from Tomsk to Moscow Sheremetyevo (Russia) with 107 passengers and 6 crew, was climbing out of Tomsk's runway 03 when an engine (CFM56) ingested a bird at about 130 feet AGL... Read full story »

Yamal CRJ2 at Moscow on Jun 27th 2016, engine shut down in flight A Yamal Airlines Canadair CRJ-200, registration VQ-BSA performing flight YC-623 from Moscow Domodedovo to Murmansk (Russia) with 50 passengers and 3 crew, was climbing out of Domodedovo's runway 32R when the crew needed to shut the right hand engine... Read full story »

Jazz CRJ2 near Montreal on Jun 20th 2016, flaps up landing A Jazz Canadair CRJ-200, registration C-FZJA performing flight QK-8818 from Hamilton,ON to Montreal,QC (Canada) with 39 passengers and 3 crew, was enroute when the crew received indication of a flaps failure. The crew prepared for a flaps up... Read full story »

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CHANNEL NEWS ASIA reporting: Man tries to set fire to Sierra Leone Air France Airbus A330-200 prior to departure for Paris.

FREETOWN: A man tried to set fire to an Air France plane at Sierra Leone's biggest airport after walking past security gaining restricted airside access to the aircraft without a passport, or boarding card, a court heard on Tuesday (Jun 28).

Airport officials promised security would be stepped up after Ibrahim Kanu attempted to board the flight armed with petrol, matches and a cigarette lighter on Jun 24 at Lungi International Airport, close to the capital of Freetown.

ON SHARE RADIO: Aviation and Aerospace industry expert Julian Bray joined Share Radio’s Directors’ Briefing sponsored by Hewlett Packard Enterprise

 

ON SHARE RADIO EARLIER TODAY: EasyJet has joined peer Int. Consolidated Airlines with a Brexit-inspired profits warning that saw its shares sharply lower again on Monday, losing almost 30% over two trading days.

Was Friday's Brexit vote potentially the straw that broke the budget airline's back?

Aviation and Aerospace industry expert Julian Bray joined Share Radio’s Directors’ Briefing sponsored by Hewlett Packard Enterprise:

https://audioboom.com/boos/4756086-brexit-easyjet-announce-profit-warning-but-is-there-more-to-come  



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EGYPTAIR MS 804 PARIS PROSECUTOR OPENS MANSLAUGHTER INVESTIGATION AS THE 2 'REPAIRED 'BLACK BOXES' ARE RETURNED TO EGYPT

With the encouraging news that Paris has 'repaired' and returned the two recorders  (the so called 'black boxes) recovered from the wreckage of Egyptair Flight MS804 also comes information that the Paris prosecutor has formally opened a manslaughter investigation into last month's EgyptAir plane crash.

Speaking to the Associated Press news agency a spokesperson confirmed that it would be set up as as an accident inquiry, because there was no evidence, so far, to link it to an act of terrorism.
The authorities, at this stage are "not at all" favouring the theory, Airbus A320 was brought down deliberately.


The Airbus part of the Egyptair fleet Flight on flight MS804 departed from Paris and was on a night flight to Cairo. It crashed in the Mediterranean Sea just outside what is known as the Egyptian Area of Responsibility (Egyptian Airspace)  on 19 May, killing all 66 people on board.

The flight recorders were recovered by a submersible vehicle, and cut from the plane's wreckage, some 290km (180 miles) north of the Egyptian coast and at a depth of about 3,000m (9,800ft).


Automated electronic engineering service messages, sent by the plane when it was in range of a departure ground station, suggested  that smoke detectors went off in a toilet and in the avionics area below the cockpit, minutes before the plane's signal was lost.


Radar tracking data also shows the plane physically turned 90 degrees left and then 360 degrees to the right, dropping from 11,300m (37,000ft) to 4,600m (15,000ft) and then 3,000m (10,000ft) before it disappeared.


This could be the 'fly-by-wire' computer control system frantically switching using multiple back up systems to try and keep the aircraft on the pre-programmed heading. But as this is pure speculation we will have to await the outcome of the official investigation.


Source: BBC News, CNS, Associated Press








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DAVID CAMERONS BLUEPRINT FOR EUROPE AND HIS OWN EXIT - the writing was on the wall in 2013....

David Camerons EU speech delivered at Bloomberg January 23 2013!

 

Prime Minister David Cameron discussed the future of the European Union at Bloomberg in January 2013. Had anyone taken full notice of its content, Mr Camerons prompt departure following the Referendum would have come as no surprise. This is the speech in full:

 

 

This morning I want to talk about the future of Europe.
But first, let us remember the past.

70 years ago, Europe was being torn apart by its second catastrophic conflict in a generation. A war which saw the streets of European cities strewn with rubble. The skies of London lit by flames night after night. And millions dead across the world in the battle for peace and liberty.

As we remember their sacrifice, so we should also remember how the shift in Europe from war to sustained peace came about. It did not happen like a change in the weather. It happened because of determined work over generations. A commitment to friendship and a resolve never to re-visit that dark past - a commitment epitomised by the Elysee Treaty signed 50 years ago this week.
After the Berlin Wall came down I visited that city and I will never forget it.

The abandoned checkpoints. The sense of excitement about the future. The knowledge that a great continent was coming together. Healing those wounds of our history is the central story of the European Union.

What Churchill described as the twin marauders of war and tyranny have been almost entirely banished from our continent. Today, hundreds of millions dwell in freedom, from the Baltic to the Adriatic, from the Western Approaches to the Aegean.

CLICK FOR FULL STORY>>

FARNBOROUGH INTERNATIONAL AIRSHOW FLYING HIGH FOR 2016 WITH JUST TWO PERCENT OF EXHIBITION SPACE REMAINING

Over 98% of inside and outside exhibition space sold

71%  International Participation

22 international pavilions

Over 30% of direct exhibitors are new to FIA

50% growth in commercial and civil delegation programme

 

Julian Bray writes: With politics in turmoil over the probable exit of the UK from the European Union - however it will not happen until the United Kingdom physically invokes Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, and then its a full two year diminishing asset process.   It could be argued that the Farnborough International Airshow this year is now critically more important than ever it has been during the last forty years of EU membership.


The organisers having coped brilliantly. with a raft of difficult recent CAA restrictive directives ( known as CAP 403) surrounding the operation of airshows within the UK, and have now announced a series of new statistics indicating next month’s Farnborough International Airshow will truly exceed target and industry expectations.


The biennial showcase for the world of aviation takes place on 11^t to 17 July 2016, and boasts a host of new features, plus an extended ground and static display area.   An increase in international participation; including for the first time Austria, Brazil, Republic of Ireland and South Korea. They will all have dedicated country pavilions, bringing the total number of international pavilions to twenty two.


The Republic of China has its first dedicated pavilion, doubling its previous exhibition space. German participation has also doubled since 2014.


The show has increased its exhibition space footprint in 2016 from previous years, and the organisers confirm that just a few exhibition areas remain, they say its over 98% sold out. The Chalet lines will include new looks for Embraer, GE and SAAB, among many others.


Lockheed Martin will unveil their new permanent structure and there will be strong presence from the F-35 team performing with the RAF Red Arrows in a straight line flypast.   


General Dynamics also make a return to Farnborough.


Other innovations for 2016 include a special Boeing pavilion celebrating their centenary which falls on the Friday of the show. 


New Farnborough exhibitor for 2016, Volga-Dnepr will joining the show by demonstrating their cargo handling capabilities in a dedicated Cargo Village.


The Civil and Commercial delegations will feature twenty six  representative groups already confirmed from key and emerging markets.  The Military delegations programme will see a high level presence from some 45 countries, and under the current political climate this could well increase.








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Air Incidents Log June 22nd

Singapore B773 enroute on Jun 27th 2016, engine oil leak A Singapore Airlines Boeing 777-300, registration 9V-SWB performing flight SQ-368 from Singapore (Singapore) to Milan Malpensa (Italy) with 222 passengers and 19 crew, was enroute at FL300 over the Andaman Sea about 2 hours into the flight when the... Read full story »

Omni B762 at Shannon on Jun 26th 2016, pitot issues An Omni Air International Boeing 767-200 on behalf of Aer Lingus, registration N234AX performing flight EI-135 from Shannon (Ireland) to Boston,MA (USA), was climbing out of Shannon's runway 24 when the crew requested to level off at FL100, stopped... Read full story »

Lingus B752 at New York on Jun 26th 2016, engine indication An Aer Lingus Boeing 757-200, registration EI-CJX performing flight EI-102 from New York JFK,NY (USA) to Dublin (Ireland), was climbing out of New York's runway 13R when the crew stopped the climb at about FL240 reporting a maintenance issue and... Read full story »

British Airways B744 at Toronto and Montreal on Jun 22nd 2016, mass and balance problem A British Airways Boeing 747-400, registration G-CIVJ performing flight BA-92 from Toronto,ON (Canada) to London Heathrow,EN (UK), was enroute at FL350 about 110nm eastnortheast of Montreal,QC (Canada) when the crew decided to turn around and divert... Read full story »

THY A332 at Istanbul on Jun 24th 2016, bird strike A THY Turkish Airlines Airbus A330-200 freighter, registration TC-JCI performing freight flight TK-6507 from Istanbul (Turkey) to Kuwait City (Kuwait), was climbing out of Istanbul's runway 35R when the crew stopped the climb at 5000 feet reporting... Read full story »

JULIAN BRAY +44(0)1733 345581 Aviation & Crisis Management Expert, Journalist & Broadcaster, Aviation Security & Airline Operations, Travel / Maritime & Cruise Industry, NUJ, EQUITY, LIVE ISDN LINK, Broadcast ISDN COOBE ++44 (0)1733 345020 e&oe Old faithful NOKIA: 07944 217476 www.aviationcomment.com

Chancellor George Osborne to do nothing until OCTOBER and gives no comfort to holidaymakers as hotels refuse English and Scottish banknotes

BREAKING NEWS: BBC NEWS is reporting: Deputy Labour leader Tom Watson, who dashed back from a muddy Glastonbury festival tells Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn to resign, after spate of UK shadow cabinet resignations, as there will be a leadership challenge.




Julian Bray Aviation Operations & Finance Expert writes: Arriving 15 minutes late for a 7am start at the UK Treasury on Monday morning, Chancellor George Osborne has effectively thrown UK travellers and ex-pats living and working abroad to the mercy of international money-dealing, ruling out a promised 'immediate emergency budget' and without a clear steer from politicians, now embroiled in two leadership elections. 


 



Graphic courtesy of Guido Fawkes http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/guidofawkes/~3/REVM3rgbK88/

By 09:30am approximately half the shadow cabinet members had resigned and the embattled Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn had issued replacement names in a reshuffle.


The clear message is do not rely on Sterling (UK£) as a stable holiday currency. At 08:15am this morning (Monday) the pound against the US dollar was down 1.53% trading at £1:35 to US$ 1.00.


The one bright point is that bookmakers backed the wrong horse (remain) and substantially paid out, the City seems to have blindly followed their lead and in the process totally unprepared for a 'leave' vote victory.


Many hedgefund managers also backing the 'remain' position suffered as well, some may well say this is a bonus! 


Although restating  'it will not be plain sailing in the days ahead', not a single word of his presentation aimed at City traders covered or even touched on the overnight downward slide of the UK Pound against major currencies.


After exchange rate commissions, holidaymakers and travellers will currently be left with little more than £1:10 to the US dollar as the currency struggles to find its own level.


The Euro is also taking a pasting, as no one expected David Cameron to throw in the towel so quickly, then in the same breath, Mr Cameron imposed a three month sterile period of inactivity "until a 'new Prime Minister' is elected" AND THEN the Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR) makes a formal assessment of the Economy in the Autumn and after the Tory Party Conference!




The key is the triggering of Article 50 to start the two year process of leaving the EU.  Once triggered the process - dubbed a withering asset - cannot be easily undone, although Germany appears to be holding the door slightly ajar.... 


Legally the UK remains a full EC member during this process and will still have to pay in. However human nature being what it is, our European political cousins may take a different, immediate, possibly self-centred view in dealing with the UK and British holidaymakers.


(We discussed the exit process at length, click this link: http://julianbrayrecessionbuster07944217476.blogspot.co.uk/2016/06/why-david-cameron-has-quit.html )


Over the weekend many international hotel chains have refused to accept sterling banknotes (as 'Central Banks have not set a rate for this currency') offered by holidaymakers and travellers.  Leaving their guests stranded, and out of immediate funds. Some ATM's are however still functioning.


Anyone setting foot outside the UK is strongly advised to stock up on US dollars and to ensure credit cards have the maximum credit available, and not to rely on Sterling, and to ensure any local purchase is calculated in US dollars.


Financial uncertainty will remain until a new Prime Minister is elected and that would be before the Conservative Party Conference after the main holiday season is over.








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LORD HILL QUITS EU as European Commissioner for Financial Stability, Financial Services and Capital Markets Union...

Jonathan Hill, Lord Hill quits his EU role....

Lord Hill quits his EU financial regulatory post.


Lord Hill, a former political lobbyist and PR consultant, was special adviser to Cabinet Minister Kenneth Clarke and an adviser to the Conservative Prime Minister John Major before being appointed a Government Minister in 2010 and appointed European Commissioner for Financial Stability, Financial Services and Capital Markets Union


This how the EU describes the role: The post is responsible for the ensuring that financial markets are properly regulated and supervised so that they are stable, competitive and transparent, at the service of jobs and growth.


This includes the full implementation of the Banking Union. They are also responsible for establishing a Capital Markets Union by 2019, for all 28 Member States of the EU, and maximising the benefits of capital markets and non-bank financial institutions for the rest of the economy, and in particular SMEs.


In addition, the post is responsible for proposing measures to make financial services work better for consumers and retail investors, and promoting global consistency in regulation and the implementation of agreed standards and principles in cooperation with international partners.  


Well none of that is going to happen, as the former PR man has quit, the second former PR man to quit, as David Cameron did so yesterday... 






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Aviation Incidents: Burst Tyre on take-off, Cabin Pressure, Captain Ill, June24th 2016

Atlasglobal A321 at Izmir on Jun 23rd 2016, rejected takeoff due to engine problem An Atlasglobal Airbus A321-200, registration TC-ETN performing flight KK-1024 from Izmir (Turkey) to Ercan (Cyprus) with 180 people on board, was accelerating for takeoff from Izmir's runway 34R when the crew rejected takeoff due to an engine... Read full story »

Spirit A319 near Lubbock on Jun 23rd 2016, loss of cabin pressure A Spirit Airlines Airbus A319-100, registration N532NK performing flight NK-875 from Dallas Ft. Worth,TX to Portland,OR (USA) with 149 people on board, was enroute at FL360 about 80nm northeast of Lubbock,TX (USA) when the crew initiated an... Read full story »

THY B739 near Antalya on Jun 24th 2016, captain incapacitated A THY Turkish Airlines Boeing 737-900, registration TC-JYG performing flight TK-604 from Dar Es Salaam (Tanzania) to Istanbul (Turkey), was enroute at FL360 south of Antalya when the captain became ill and was unable to continue duties. The first... Read full story »

Delta B744 near Seattle on May 30th 2016, dual FMS failure A Delta Airlines Boeing 747-400, registration N662US performing flight DL-167 from Seattle,WA (USA) to Tokyo Narita (Japan) with 364 people on board, was enroute at FL320 about 220nm northwest of Seattle in Canadian Airspace, when the crew declared... Read full story »

Allegiant B752 at Las Vegas on Jun 22nd 2016, burst tyre on takeoff An Allegiant Boeing 757-200, registration N902NV performing flight G4-500 from Las Vegas,NV to Indianapolis,IN (USA) with 202 passengers and 7 crew, was in the initial climb out of Las Vegas' runway 25R when the crew requested a runway inspection of... Read full story »

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WHY DAVID CAMERON HAS QUIT...IMPORTANT ARTICLE 50 CONSIDERATIONS FOR THE UK'S NEW PRIME MINISTER

 '.....communication with Europe appears to have broken down ,Prime Minister'

This is probably why the British Prime Minister David Cameron has decided to go so quickly, have a look at this research document, written in 2013.


The full paper is on this link: https://www.swp-berlin.org/fileadmin/contents/products/research_papers/2013_RP07_olv.pdf


.....and this should be considered along with this extract from the ever excellent Jack of Kent Blog, writing on Article 50 ...  
http://jackofkent.com/2016/06/why-the-article-50-notification-is-important/

SWP Research Paper

Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik German

Institute for International  and Security Affairs

Europe without Britain

Assessing the Impact on the European Union of a British Withdrawal

By Tim Oliver

" A UK withdrawal would have profound implications and costs for the UK, far greater than for the EU. Nevertheless, the rest of the EU would face both the unprecedented event of a withdrawal of a member state and, in the case of the UK, the withdrawal of one of its largest members. This could bring about significant changes to the EU. For some, the loss of one of the most economically liberal members could tip the EU towards protectionism, or perhaps trigger a crisis in European integration leading to the EU’s unravelling. Others see the potential for the EU to free itself of its most awkward member, making the EU easier to lead, aiding a solution to the Eurozone’s crises, in turn strengthening the foundations for an ever closer union among the people of Europe."


Article 50 Treaty on European Union

1.  Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements. 

2.  A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union.


That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.


It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament. 

3.  The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period. 

4.  For the purposes of paragraphs 2 and 3, the member of the European Council or of the Council representing the withdrawing Member State shall not participate in the discussions of the European Council or Council or in decisions concerning it.


A qualified majority shall be defined in accordance with Article 238(3)(b) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. 

5.  If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49.




Source:


https://www.swp-berlin.org/fileadmin/contents/products/research_papers/2013_RP07_olv.pdf




As should be clear, the potential implications for the EU of a UK withdrawal are unclear and open to much speculation.


This is thanks in part to a lack of discussion of the topic. Indeed, the very idea of discussing a member state withdrawing from the EU remains a taboo subject.


This remains the case despite the inclusion of Article 50 TEU and the growing possibility of a British withdrawal. This taboo should be broken.


Shying away from discussing it only adds to uncertainty which those seeking the UK’s withdrawal benefit from. More importantly, if the EU is to reach a calculated decision about whether or not to press ahead with a renegotiation then it needs to assess whether or not it is worth making the effort to keep the UK inside on renegotiated terms, or whether it might be better to seek a new arrangement altogether with the UK on the outside.


The possibility then of a UK withdrawal presents the EU with a series of questions: 


1. Should the EU refuse to discuss the idea of a British withdrawal until a vote to withdraw actually happens? 


2. Should the issue of withdrawal be discussed as part of any renegotiation of Britain’s relationship inside the EU? 


3. What red-lines should the EU set down for any discussion of withdrawal, either in any renegotiation or during a withdrawal negotiation? 


4. How is Britain’s part in European integration – both positive and negative – to be assessed? 


5. To what extent would a UK withdrawal help solve the problems with the Eurozone and make possible further progress towards “ever closer union”? 


6. What would a UK withdrawal mean for the EU’s international standing and security? 


7. What type of relationship would the EU like to have with a UK that has left the EU, and how would this fit with, or change, the EU’s relationships with other non-EU parts of Europe? 


8. Should further written clarification be prepared about Article 50 TEU, and if so who is to do this? 


9. What processes should the EU follow to manage the internal changes to the EU brought about by a UK withdrawal? 


10. How would a UK withdrawal shift the balance of power in the EU and direction of European integration?

Initial answers to these questions should point to how neither the UK nor EU should savour the idea of a British withdrawal. It could be traumatic for both the UK and the EU. This could be especially so for the UK, as it would mean withdrawing from its most important and comprehensive international relationship.


The EU, however, should be under no illusions that the impact on it [the EU] could also be significant.

Source:  https://www.swp-berlin.org/fileadmin/contents/products/research_papers/2013_RP07_olv.pdf





JULIAN BRAY +44(0)1733 345581 Aviation & Crisis Management Expert, Journalist & Broadcaster, Aviation Security & Airline Operations, Travel / Maritime & Cruise Industry, NUJ, EQUITY, LIVE ISDN LINK, Broadcast ISDN COOBE ++44 (0)1733 345020 e&oe Old faithful NOKIA: 07944 217476 www.aviationcomment.com

UK INDEPENDENCE DAY JUNE 23 JUNE 2016, OVER 17 MILLION VOTE TO QUIT EUROPE (17,410,742)

Strike up the Band, but repair our UK defences first... 

Julian Bray writes: OVER 72% of the British voting population ( 17,410,742 ) has endorsed the axing of  its 40+ year membership of the EU / European Commission. The UK has voted: 51.9% to leave the EU (48.1% to remain), and as the exit campaign put it 'to take back control'  - and to be fair we have always thought Camerons departure was firmly on the cards, say within a few weeks certainly not hours - as the increasing references to family, holidays and his private life have been a feature of David Camerons speeches recently, and returning from his failed mission to win any significant concessions from European leaders. 

So the British Prime Minister David Cameron has resigned,  this is part of his resignation speech.....

David Cameron: "I held nothing back, I was absolutely clear about my belief that Britain is stronger, safer and better off inside the European Union and I made clear the referendum was about this and this alone - not the future of any single politician including myself.

"But the British people have made a very clear decision to take a different path and as such I think the country requires fresh leadership to take it in this direction.

"I will do everything I can as Prime Minister to steady the ship over the coming weeks and months but I do not think it would be right for me to try to be the captain that steers our country to its next destination.

"This is not a decision I've taken lightly but I do believe it's in the national interest to have a period of stability and then the new leadership required.

"There is no need for a precise timetable today but in my view we should aim to have a new prime minister in place by the start of the Conservative Party conference in October.

"Delivering stability will be important and I will continue in post as Prime Minister with my Cabinet for the next three months.

"The Cabinet will meet on Monday, the Governor of the Bank of England is making a statement about the steps that the Bank and the Treasury are taking to reassure financial markets.

"We will also continue taking forward the important legislation that we set before Parliament in the Queen's Speech.

"And I have spoken to Her Majesty the Queen this morning to advise her of the steps that I am taking.

"A negotiation with the European Union will need to begin under a new prime minister and I think it's right that this new prime minister takes the decision about when to trigger Article 50 and start the formal and legal process of leaving the EU.

"I will attend the European Council next week to explain the decision the British people have taken...."   Best of luck with that Mr Cameron!

The immediate reaction by the City was interesting last night they clearly backed the wrong horse, the pound soared to £1:50/US$1 but immediately it became clear from early morning television the pound fell off a cliff. 

Sterling however recovered half of it losses  following a robust TV speech directly to camera by the Governor of the Bank of England committing immediately, wait for it.....  £250Billion of reserves to support liquidity and counter volatility in the City over the next few weeks.

To set the EU withdrawal  process in train Article 50 has to be invoked but David Cameron says he'll not be doing it, so it will be at least 3 months until a new prime minister is appointed by the Conservative Party (Boris Johnson MP would seem to be in pole position) or they could opt for a snap General Election!

Meanwhile EU/EC leaders says Article 50 has to be invoked, and quickly to prevent 'contagion.' What is also clear is that few of the leaders have a 'Plan B' to put into operation. Few inside Brussels expected the UK would leave

But this also calls into question the quality of the current Labour Party leadership after Mr Corbyns seemingly lack lustre approach to the campaigning over the last month and his earlier rocky start to his term in office.  

STOP PRESS: The BBC reports Margaret Hodge and Ann Coffey have tabled a no confidence motion in Jeremy Corbyn, which could be voted on Tuesday night.

The PLP might be able to topple him but how will they win round the membership?

The problem with Blairites organising a putsch against Jez is they were the ones out of touch with […] The post Corbyn No Confidence Motion Tabled appeared first on Guido Fawkes
WWW.order-order.com  

So how does this affect travel and aviation? As much of the business is conducted in US dollars, linking Sterling to the Dollar might be an option, in the short term everyone will suffer as exchange rates encounter wide swings.

The British holidaymaker will immediately notice a marked change in spending power as holiday money rates are effectively surcharged on City rates so, expect a sharp drop in US holidays, a cut back on US Cruise ships (the onboard hotel and retail trade and gratuities are all negotiated in greenbacks!)  Possibly extra Visa and entry restrictions in mainland Europe, Canaries, and as for Gibraltar, expect Spain to rattle a few sabres... We live in interesting times. Tin Hats all round...

JULIAN BRAY +44(0)1733 345581 Aviation & Crisis Management Expert, Journalist & Broadcaster, Aviation Security & Airline Operations, Travel / Maritime & Cruise Industry, NUJ, EQUITY, LIVE ISDN LINK, Broadcast ISDN COOBE ++44 (0)1733 345020 e&oe Old faithful NOKIA: 07944 217476 www.aviationcomment.com